History Made Today

Random thoughts on election day...

...Virgina is the state to watch. If Virginia is called early, we could have a real sense of things. If Virgina is called for Obama, then that means the polls are correct, and the game is on! Subtracting Virginia from the Republican column would give Mr. McCain very few routes to 270 electoral votes.


....In the first voting of the day, Mr Obama won by 15 votes to six in the town of Dixville Notch, New Hampshire.

The town, which has a 60-year tradition of being first in the nation to vote, opened its polls at midnight, with turnout of 100%. It was the first time the town had voted for a Democrat since 1968.

....Estimates are that 130 million votes will have been cast by the end of voting today. Includes the 44 million in early votes.

Last Minute Info

The Washington Post-ABC News tracking poll shows Obama leading by nine percentage points -- 53 percent to 44 percent.

The final Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll of the election published on Tuesday found likely voters favored Mr Obama by 11 points over Mr McCain, 54-43%.

Red States in Play

The closest states include some that are familiar from the past two elections but also several where Republicans generally have dominated. Florida appears very close, as does Missouri. Obama has a lead of six points in two Ohio-based polls released in the past two days, but that state is still regarded as a battleground.

But among other states that are now competitive, there are a few surprises. They include Indiana, Georgia, Montana and North Dakota. In several other states Republicans carried four years ago, Obama is now leading, although not in all cases by as much as he needs to put them safely in his column. This group includes Virginia, Colorado and Nevada. He has bigger leads in two other states where Bush won narrowly in 2004: Iowa and New Mexico.

The Turn Out

The rate to beat in modern times is the 64 percent who voted in 1960. But the real record was set a century ago, when 66 percent voted in a race that no doubt warms the heart of Mr. McCain: 1908 was the year that William Howard Taft, the Republican, defeated the golden-tongued Democrat, William Jennings Bryan.

...It's 7:26 a.m. and a Jeremiah Wright commercial is on. The GOP is desperate.

...Opinion polls indicate that Obama leads the vote in all the states that Senator John Kerry captured in his unsuccessful run against President Bush in 2004.

And one final thought this morning.

I miss Tim Russert.